What did you learn in 2019?

2019 was a great year for some investors.

Last year, I asked on Twitter what people learned in 2019.

The world has changed hugely. Coronavirus wasn’t in our everyday vocabulary.

But fast forward twelve months and most of the country is in a Tier 4 lockdown yet global equities are pressing all-time highs.

However, I’m sure many of the insights are just as relevant today.

Investing is a long-term game

A bad year does not a bad investment process make. You are not wrong because the price is down. Neither are you right because the price is up.

You are right because you have accurately assessed the data and made a sound judgement.

“In the short term, the market is a voting machine – but over the long term the market becomes a weighting machine”.

Benjamin Graham

You can be wrong for a long time before the market agrees with you. Everybody wants to be a contrarian, but nobody likes looking wrong.

One exercise I find helpful is to print off trades and go through them with a highlighter.

Look at big wins and losses. Look at small losses too. Did the price revert after you closed the trade? Are you placing your stops too tight?

More importantly: What are you going to do about it?

Quantitative data will show patterns. These patterns can be looked at and potentially improved. It is difficult to improve unless one knows what they can improve on.

I took a large percentage loss on a stock called 7digital (7DIG) in early 2019. The reasons for this are entirely my own fault.

  • I placed too much trust in a board that had put their own cash into the stock
  • The business wasn’t profitable
  • Receivables were becoming stretched
  • I ignored a downtrending chart

There is no real excuse here because there were too many red flags. I ignored them all.

First of all, the directors may put their own cash into a business.

But they still draw a salary from the company (and bonuses, expenses, pension benefits, and the rest..). You as a shareholder do not.

A director’s interests cannot be aligned with yours because they can do things with the company that you cannot.

My second mistake was to buy stock in a business that wasn’t profitable.

Source: SharePad

I also had no real idea of how cash moved through the business.

This was a gamble on trusting management telling me they didn’t need to do another raise. But no manager is ever going to tell you they’ll need to raise because:

1) it’s inside information unless released in an RNS, and
2) everyone would short the stock and cover in the placing.

The paid-for research house Edison Research had over-optimistic broker forecasts.

Of course it did, because the company paid Edison Research to produce research. Whose bread I eat, his song I sing.

The third red flag was that receivables were becoming stretched compared to cash in the bank, which meant that the company wasn’t collecting its cash effectively.

Source: Investegate

My biggest mistake of all though was to ignore a falling chart. These three mistakes could’ve been ignored had the chart been in an uptrend.

But it wasn’t. It was a stage 4 downtrend and a one-way street of sellers.

Source: SharePad

Sometimes a good hole in the wallet can fix bad processes, as there’s nothing like losing money to provide feedback that what you’re doing is wrong and not working.

Long shots almost always miss the mark “

Peter Lynch

From that point, the chart became my priority in all of my decisions. You don’t need to catch the bottom to make money. You don’t need fundamentals for a stock to go up.

I asked what others learned in 2019 and the results were mixed and interesting. It’s also cheaper to learn from others than it is to make the mistakes yourself.

To benefit from their collective knowledge, read on..

Position sizing was a key theme

I believe any trader or investor will improve their P&L over time by position sizing properly – you can read my article in the Investors Chronicle here or download my free trading handbook at the bottom of this post.

Stick to the plan, Position sizing, cutting losers and be very, very careful who you trust and believe


This is useful advice from Dan. It’s good to have a small circle to bounce ideas off and get leads from (some great trades have come from others). But nobody cares about your money more than you.

You’re on your own in the market. If you lose – you lose.

There is no manager to lift your spirits. There are no teammates to console you. If you’re down at the end of your reporting period then it’s your fault. Nobody else’s.

There are people whose opinions I value. But those opinions are ideas only, and you shouldn’t follow anybody else blindly.

Jesse Livermore found this out the hard way when he relied on a tip in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. He would then go on to find the best tipster of all.

At the same time I realise that the best of all tipsters, the most persuasive of all salesmen, is the tape.

Edwin Lefèvre, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

Therefore, the only way to trade is independently. Don’t rely on others’ views. Find your own trades.

Always stick to your strategy and never get over confident , leading to taking bigger positions and losses.


Rameez makes the point that overconfidence can lead to excessive risk-taking and larger losses.

Large wins spike the dopamine levels in the brain. This is a natural physiological reaction after a big reward. Several big wins can lead to complacency. I experienced this in 2017 and paid the price.

If you haven’t experienced the sickening feeling of a big loss yet – don’t worry. It’s likely you will at some point.

 Position size means a more relaxed and enjoyable investing/trading experience


If more private investors and traders decreased their position sizes this would have a direct correlation on both stress and anxiety reduction.

I have had people message me several times a day about every tick up and down in a stock before because they were too large in the stock.

PRO TIP: If a position size makes you uncomfortable, then sell down to the ‘sleeping point’. This is the position size that doesn’t affect you emotionally.

If you give a stock a knife then eventually it will stab you.

Don’t give any stock the opportunity to hurt you, and keep positions well within the sleeping point.

You are in too deep in a stock if you can’t enjoy your life or concentrate on other activities or work.

No stock is ever going to make me rich (unless I hold it for years and years) and no stock can hurt me deeply.

Eventually, I will wake up to a position that was fraudulent and I will lose the lot. In this business it’s inevitable.

This happened with Patisserie Valerie (CAKE) and it will happen again. Do not assume the auditors will protect you. They won’t. If a company can fool the auditors (or the auditors are asleep on the job) – it can certainly fool you and me.

Preparing for the worst on every position will see you breathe a sigh of relief one day.

By luck, I was not holding Conviviality for the bounce trade.

Source: SharePad

It closed the session and suspended before the open the next day. It never came back. Everybody lost everything.

Cut my losses faster and size positioning


Traders should focus on limiting losses.

P&Ls are driven by two things:

  1. How good you are at minimising losers, and
  2. How good you are at driving winners

Your success in the stock market will depend on how good you are at doing these.

I don’t average down myself as a trader but I accept that it is a valid investing strategy. I know people that have done very well from it.

It’s not for me but it is explained in detail in The Art of Execution (summarised here).

Position sizing on riskier, binary outcomes. Will now avoid exploration companies, or at least cut the position before results.


Taking risky bets on exploration drills or Phase III trials can be a fast-track to the poorhouse.

Here is the chart of Motif Bio in 2019. Many were expecting the company’s asset, iclaprim, to be approved by the FDA due to its assistance on the successful REVIVE-1 and REVIVE-2 phase III trials.

Unfortunately, the FDA couldn’t pass the drug in its current form, which meant more testing and more money. The stock gapped down heavily.

Source: SharePad

However, those who traded the reaction could have caught a 200% move from the day’s low into the morning session of the day after.

It is better to react rather than predict.

Dealing with psychological aspects of trading/investing huge part of the game improved on. Position sizing & cutting losses massively improved


Many believe that the competition in this sport of trading/investing is with others.

The only competition is in your head with yourself.

We are prisoners of our own psychology. Your results will also depend on how objective you can be when new feedback from your trades is received and how successful you are at adapting to them.

Ignore 99% of ‘Chartists’. Understand market structure in terms of liquidity and learn to think like a market maker. Trade price action level to level and compound / build better positions. Read the chart from right to left not visa versa. Constantly analyse your journal.


Thinking like a market maker gives one an excellent advantage because many retail traders are just liquidity. They don’t have a strategy and they react predictably. When you have an edge, that liquidity can be used to your advantage.

But be aware of crowded trades too. In 1998, Russia defaulted on its bonds. This triggered margin calls across many money managers.

To cover these calls many decided to close their European interest rate convergence trades.

This trade was based on the assumption of the euro coming into existence. If it did, then European interest rates would need to converge.

Therefore, the trade was to buy the bonds that had low yields and sell the bonds that had high yields. This trade was considered a mathematical certainty (as long as the euro came into being).

But when these leveraged money managers turned sellers they couldn’t find buyers.

Everyone had the trade already.

Ultimately, the convergence trade worked. The euro came into existence, and European interest rates did converge.

But people still lost money on a mathematically certain trade because of the mechanics: there was nobody left to buy.

Never underestimate the crowded trade.

Do your research, make your choices based on the current information and modify and adjust your positions as situations change. 2.0 Be aware of but don’t act on most of what you read on Twitter, LSE and other BB’s and stay true to 1.0


Risk evolves as the trade is ongoing. If you’re up 20% from your entry – the risk/reward ratio has now changed.

Manage Risk. 1% Trades.


I have never heard of a single trader going bust from small positions.

In every case of a blown account that I have heard of it always included oversized positions/leverage, and volatility. Often it was a combination of the two.

Use guaranteed stops to manage your risk, on larger resource cos especially, as can save you a lot if bad news comes – #TLW being the perfect example!


Guaranteed stops are brilliant – they provide certainty and can also free up margin. They do charge a premium if triggered but that premium can be worth it – especially if the stock in question has just had a surprise profit warning.

There was also a significant amount of responses detailing doing your own research, investing in quality, and avoiding red flags

Work hard to develop a personal investment style that works, that you are comfortable with and is based on sound investment and risk management principles… then stick to it. Merry Christmas Michael and best wishes for 2020.


This is helpful from Mike – there are many ways to skin a cat and what works for one person may not be congruent with someone else’s personality.

I have no qualms buying a stock I know nothing about if I think it will make me money based on the chart. Others won’t buy unless they’ve dissected every RNS from the last three years.

There is no right or wrong way – all that matters is if it makes you money.

Wait and wait until the market is offering a free lunch and then eat as much as you possibly can. Avoid 50:50 trades and anything that needs cash. Being short on terrible stocks in a strong market can cost you money, I’ve had several go up on profit warnings.


As John says, every now and again the market throws up situations that aren’t priced in. Being greedy at such situations can lead to outperformance. However, this strategy of potential overexposure carries risk.

I would always encourage people to read the annual report from back to front – the detail which can then hurt the private investor is invariably disclosed in the notes not the PR bullsh#t of the Chairman/Chief Exec’s polemic


Management know that most private investors won’t read the annual reports and so this is where everything management wants to hide can be found.

Companies with high compound rates of growth and earnings will eventually lead to significant investor returns.


One classic private investor mistake is to invest in stocks with zero profits. I have been there and done that.

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Albert Einstein

He’s not wrong.

Spend more time on researching on what Directors are NOT telling you, rather than researching what they are telling you.


Mike Pearson of Valeant made a lot of noise and the company made several acquisitions.

But whilst everybody was focusing on the acquisitions, nobody was looking elsewhere.

Nobody was looking at Philidor, which was prescribing drugs at an ever-increasing cost to the insurance companies. However, the insurance companies started getting wise and started rejecting these scripts.

To get around this Philidor would buy a suburban pharmacy and issue the script through them to the insurance companies.

But there are only so many suburban pharmacies one can buy.

In the end, pharmacies were created out of thin air.

It took a while for the street to solve the mystery – but that’s because people weren’t looking.

They were looking here at Mike Pearson talking and not there where Philidor was doing the prescribing.

Don’t ignore the red flags.


It’s human nature to try to avoid what we don’t want to see, and so our biases lead us to focus on the positives and downplay the negatives.

Reading BB [bulletin board] for confirmation bias is NOT research. TBF, I learned this many moons ago. Lemmings need to be reminded though!


There are some knowledgeable people on bulletin boards. But these people are drowned out by the deluge of dross. Multi-ID rampers, people who lost money and then haunt the bulletin board for literally years, and paid promoters are all active here.

The reality – like Twitter DM groups on shares – is that only bullish opinions are allowed. Any dissenter is reported and removed. You can ask a perfectly legitimate question, but if someone believes it might cause people to question their holding and sell then it’s likely you will be removed.

My opinion: Never use Twitter DM groups and don’t bother with bulletin boards either. They aren’t moderated because the bulletin board providers use the traffic generated to sell ads and impressions.

After your very own research, stick to your very own strategy regardless of fluctuations because nothing goes up in a straight line. And don’t forget to sell when your exit strategy appears. In short Greed kills, don’t chase


That i) IFRS 15 has shown many companies to have ‘overstated’ past earnings; ii) even ‘quality’ companies have accounting ‘quirks’, and; iii) reading annual report small-print can create an advantage over most other investors.


Again – reading the annual report is emphasised. Maynard is a fellow writer at ShareScope and runs his own blog here.

Research, Research , Research and trust your instincts


For me it’s: 1) Never overlook cash/cashflow 2) Low growth with high ROCE is preferable to higher growth with low ROCE 3) Big money isn’t necessarily smart money


Simon is a successful investor and makes some valid points.

Revenue is vanity, profit is sanity, and cash is reality. Companies that manage their cash effectively have historically done well in the stock market.

ROCE, or Return On Capital Employed, can be thought of like a company’s interest rate. It is the return the company gets when it invests in itself.

The higher the ROCE margin, the more effective the company is at growing its own capital. This then leads to more capital to deploy, and it can become a virtuous cycle.

Trust noone


Do Your Own Research, & Trust No One But Your Own Instincts, It’s A Poker Game.


Stick to your convictions and principles, but keep them under review. As long as you have understood your investee companies, and they’re sound, the share price will come good in the end.


There was a strong emphasis of doing your own research and Mark emphasises following a process and trusting in that process.

Mark Bentley is a director of ShareSoc, which is a not-for-profit membership organisation, created by and for individual investors.

For the price of a dinner out, your membership goes towards providing information and education, by promoting your rights to companies, and by seeking to influence government and regulatory policy.

Get to know your investments and fellow investors so you feel comfortable and understand what is happening and who to trust when trying to decipher all the news that affects them…..


David Stredder runs the popular Mello conference which brings directors and shareholders together. It’s a very popular event and currently runs online as Mello Monday.

For me it was about asking “do I really have an informational advantage here” & if not then refusing to take a position no matter how strong my opinion was that something was under or overvalued.


Mark refuses to take a position unless he has an edge. How many of the stocks that you’re currently holding do you feel like you have an edge in? If not – do you have a good reason for holding them?

I had the pleasure of reviewing Mark’s excellent book Excellent Investing – which can be bought here.

Stick to your own ideas no matter how good someone else’s seem. It is the same with friends, someone else’s friends are not your friends. Work to your strengths.


Staying focussed on your game & strategy and not get distracted by temptations. If the reserach is good and solid and nothing has changed why get distracted on others…


Sometimes it’s worth listening to others but remember those who aren’t in a share are always going to be bearish. If they weren’t then they would be in the stock.

Just follow you !!


Thanks Stephen! Although I’d caveat that with nobody should follow anyone blindly. I get as many wrong as I get right but my edge is in risk/reward and managing capital rather than superior fundamental knowledge.

No matter how much you have researched a stock/are confident about its future. Expect the unexpected and don’t presume anything.


Ivan’s comment reminds me of that quote from the big short.

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so”.

Mark Twain (he didn’t have Twitter)

Only Mark Twain never said that. Nobody said that.

The quote doesn’t not appear in any of Twain’s writing – books, essays, letters, or speeches.

Quote Investigator found that the original phrase “I honestly beleave it iz better tew know nothing than two know what ain’t so” was written by a Josh Billings in 1874.

It also found that in 1899 a religious orator assigned a rephrased version of the comment to Twain.

Perhaps, as Mark Twain observed, it is better not to know so much than to know so many things that aren’t so.

1899 February, The Pacific Unitarian, Volume 7, Number 4, Address of Rev. Charles R. Brown, Start Page 118, Quote Page 119, Column 2, San Francisco, California.

However, those who have read Michael Lewis’s book of the same title will recognise this quote:

“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.”

Leo Tolstoy (also no Twitter)

But unlike Mark Twain’s quote – Leo Tolstoy’s is real.

Why the switch?

Maybe it was a genuine mistake. Or maybe it was to make the point that what you know for sure just ain’t so.

Patience and inactivity had been a learning point for many too. As Peter Lynch said – sometimes the best stock to buy is the one you already own.

Remember what you are good at, never invest in something you don’t understand or you are not happy to hold if you get your timing wrong. And above all, patience, as ever.


1. Less trading has been good for me – masterly inaction. 2. Be more confident in own stock picks.


Less is more


Less is More – doing nothing and not tinkering with your Long term Portfolio can often bring higher Returns and a lot less ‘work’. ;-)


Pete runs the Twin Petes Investing podcast His blog is at https://wheeliedealer.weebly.com/ and he runs the Twin Pete Investments with Peter Higgens (@conkers3).

Do absolutely nothing.


I assume Martin means this when one owns quality companies and one is invested in them for the long term.

A couple of big winners will outweigh many losers if you are patient with the former and decisive with the latter.


Big winners pay for lots of losers, especially if your losses are small, and your wins are small or large.

Never invest in company’s that don’t generate cash flow.


Wise words from Fabio!

Even of you have invested “wisely” after hours, days, months even years of research, it can fail. Do not fall in love with a stock and defend it to the death, because its death will kill you financially


Patience, patience, patience. If you’ve invested in a company for solid reasons, don’t get bored/second guess yourself based on negative share price movements unless the story has changed.


Trusting others was also an important factor for many.

Ref. AIM, most are focused on bottom feeding shite for a trade as opposed to investing regularly in sound fundamentals


Those blaming others for their mistakes are always bitter. Be better not bitter.


You are responsible for all of your results.

Look at Koovs CFO Robert Pursell. Refused to buy a single share for 3 years. Earned £180k. Company went into admin. They paid analysts for exaggerated reports to dupe shareholders. Not scared of the FCA. Not scared to lie. Beware if Chairman is creditor! They get 1st shout!


Unfortunately, this is the dark side of AIM. I wrote about AIM’s traps which was the cover feature for Investors Chronicle here – both Mporium (MPM) and Koovs (KOOV) went into administration, only to be bought for small change by the directors. In both instances, the purchasing company was set up a few weeks earlier. Almost as if they knew it was coming!

The most important thing ive learnt this year has all been down to the poor markets which is a direct result of the failure to either deliver brexit or negate it. That is that unlike most PIs who look for a profit month2month or Y2Y the system needs to make money daily Pt1..

And when the markets are poor the system moves to a darker side to make money and the system takes many with it who then show their true colours. Well known & versed (dogs) of companies flourish whether in spurious post placing ramps or pumps to clear trapped stock Pt2


“Investing is not a team sport” – I’ve taken a significant time to properly realise this & my psychology has improved even since. It doesn’t mean you cannot make friends but don’t ever believe you are “in it together”!


Pay no attention to the permabears, perpetually screaming “crash, crash, crash!!!” The market will provide us the clues when it wishes to reverse.


The people that know what they’re doing on Twitter don’t ramp anything. Ramping and de-ramping is predominantly amateurs playing with small change.


Learning to wade through the morass of questionable promoters


A lifestyle CEO who is a pathological sociopath and delivered nothing for decades except dreaming up new ways to suck cash out of a company isn’t going to change his spots.


Don’t throw more money at Roach #PREM


Avoid groups at all costs. They are designed to keep you buying when you should be selling and to keep you holding when you should have already run a mile. Any (justified) critique is almost certainly met with open hostility. Frequently delusional members if not a outright P&D


Do not trust self styled gurus on twitter.


That the vast majority of aim companies BODs care not one jot about its shareholders so long as they claim there exorbitant wages and then refuse to invest anything in their own companies. If it was a great story they would buy stock.


Stay out of the private groups. They sub consciously tie you in for longer when things aren’t going well and consume way too much of your time. Also stop trying to catch falling knifes


Common theme here……. trust! How sad.


There were many great answers from the original thread. Here are the rest!

Thanks to all who responded – and all the best for 2021. I’m looking forward to it.

You don’t have to invest in ‘quality’ companies (‘quality’ is subjective anyway) to make money if you get the timing right.


….. I’m still learning


Short to medium term market dynamics matter more than fundamentals, medium to longer term fundamentals will out. Know your investment time horizon.


Eat negativity. Puke positivity


Set a target


Price wise, I failed using calendar targets


Be Reserved, Relentless & Ruthless


Nothing is as important as family


The @TheFCA are shambolic.


I need to cut losers quicker


Stay in the Market.


Buy shares when they’re going up – not when they’re going down. If you’re not a full-time investor it’s hard to know more than the market and the odds are not in your favour even if investing is your job.


“The trend is your friend”


Know as many stories as you can so when rns comes you can react accordingly and not rely on someone else’s tweet




Dont be a bear for a whole year.


Regardless of whether he’s right or wrong don’t underestimate the Muddy Waters effect.


Take care after a big win. My complacency cost me a lot!


The market is constantly evolving. Value plays, momentum plays, tiny scalps etc all have their time in the spotlight. 2019 was very much about the smaller trades and scalps.


I’d agree with that [with GeordiePhil]. I’ve also learnt that you really only need 1-2 big plays to come off to make your year & how binary / single catalyst plays are more often more damaging than rewarding.


If you go big enough two or three investments can be life changing…..


Don’t be too greed. I’ve let a few profits go when I was trying to “ride winners”. So may slice a bit sooner going forward.


A concentrated portfolio does not have to be a higher risk portfolio


That multiple profits warnings are a thing but with weighting’s correct it doesn’t have to mean negative returns. This has lead to a change in tactic for 2020 so your never too wise to adapt and learn.


Keep the cash in the bank…


Have to turn tactics a complete 180 and change total trade plans as market evolves to earn.


Yep, stay nimble.


Keep trading the top profits off, pause for breath in between.


Technical Analysis. Thanks for articles.


To make a good balance of investment trusts the main part of my portfolio.


My decisions were best after losing. Worst after I had made good money. Fomo has been my enemy. Watching prices too much makes you lose bigger picture gives more stress. Less Twitter is better. Taking a break from the slow market does not cost you money but may save some.


Stocks can go down aswell as down


Stocks can go into oblivion as well as down


Performance is inversely correlated to the amount of time spent viewing and tinkering with the portfolio!


Not to take profit too quickly


If the news is bad, don’t wait for it to get worse, sell. If you’re wrong you can always get back in


Dont let a quality buy slip away when it risen a bit.


Ultimately, all decisions you make are down to you and you alone.


Its not only trash stocks that get pumped and dumped. Plenty of stocks with decent fundamental value and promising outlook get ramped then sold into. They are the dangerous ones


If your profit doubles within a week sell all or de risk dont be greedy and listen to people saying it will hit this price at close,only then to see MMs take it right back down


If it sounds too good to be true it is probably bollocks


I’m better trading weekly patterns than intraday / daily


High PER shares can go higher. PER expansion.


The liquidity injection from the repo market was certainly bad for shorting. Did not understand it’s magnitude of impact.


When I find an approach that works & I understand, don’t move ad-hoc to the latest clever thinking or ramping. Research, research and research.




Every dog has its day


It’s still the shit shower it was in 2018.


Never buy a stock unless there’s a genuine trigger to do so, in terms of price, volume, breakout, ATH, contract, Director Dealings etc


Don’t invest in stocks … bricks and mortar all day long .


Should have realised in January anything to do with Woodford was going to be worth a lot less in June


Getting into the psychology of the MMs.


Trust your analysis


Be patient




Always sell on a spike…take profit where you can. Only buy more when the dust has settled.


Set a stop loss for all trades. Otherwise sp can keep slipping and your emotion doesn’t allow to sell.


Doing nothing and not checking share prices every single sodding day is sometimes a really good strategy.


Only have a sizable cash pile if you think the market’s going to go down, otherwise the very tracker you’re trying to beat might be the best short-term place for your cash.


To place much less emphasis on the wider macro and political environment.


As much as possible stay clear of AIM shares. It’s a russian roulete and often a recipe for disaster. You can be hit with a profit warning or a fraud scandal out of the blue. Intead play it safe with FTSE250 or FTSE100.


Use a stop loss


A great product does not necessarily mean a great company. Eg….Fire Angel….


Rather than focusing on one approach and trying to improve on it, try out a few different approaches and see which work best


If you hold a popular stock (ramped) and it opens up 50%+ on news, get out by 8.05am before it’s dumped.


Take the profit and cut losers quickly


stick to your convictions and patience will out…:)


If you believe in the company and have done your research don’t sell out of boredom if the share price drifts lower. See it as an opportunity to add. Also Don’t over trade.


Don’t buy when a company is in a takeover situation- stupid mistake in buying FLYB


How to get faked out repeatedly.


Run like fuck when you see 10%


To filter the idiots and rampers. Trust your own strategies and research.


Cut your losers quickly and let winners run. Patience


The things you think you know are important aren’t necessarily the things that undo your investment thesis Happy Christmas Michael


For me it was the extent to which my process had drifted. My chosen process is: 1. To look for companies with significant competitive advantage (which can take many forms) 2. To do enough detailed analysis to confirm this judgement to a reasonable level 3. Buy and hold until the information changes This year: 1. I was swayed by fears around macro / political events jumping in and out of individual shares as my fears / hopes about the market changed 2. I spent much less time on the detailed analysis making (often ill informed) intuitive leaps to decide on the competitive advantage of a business Not surprisingly, my return this year has been poor and much below previous years. A short analysis of my trades during the year (started but not yet complete) has highlighted how much I have lost by over trading and making decisions with insufficient analysis So, what I have learned is the importance of choosing a good process, sticking to it and monitoring to keep improving. Sorry that was quite a long post.


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